Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
